Everything Is Predictable by Tom Chivers
This week's read is on Bayes' theorem
This Week’s Read
Everything Is Predictable: How Bayes' Remarkable Theorem Explains the World by Tom Chivers
“Can you predict the future?” Chivers poses questions and, as follow-up examples, demonstrates that, yes, indeed, you can.
Chivers, a science writer, lays out how Bayes’ theorem—a 300‑year‑old mathematical idea affects every aspect of our lives.
Rather than boring us with equations, he shows how Bayesian thinking enhances weather forecasts, medical diagnoses, and even the process of updating our beliefs.
“Bayes had shown that, if you take into account a prior estimate of what that true value is most likely to be, you can use those measurements to make inferences—to make statements about what is likely in the world.”
The book covers history, storytelling, and straight explanation, revealing how probability helps us navigate uncertainty.
“Humans are prediction machines,” Chivers writes, “and Thomas Bayes showed us the maths of how we do it.”
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Really nice read. I wrote on a similar topic recently about the power of saying no. We are generally wired to say yes to so many things that we get overwhelmed and burned out. I love the filter you put this through. It's great to have a system or criteria for what tasks or projects you really need to focus on and then let the rest go.